The numbers.
Base case, three views.
All figures US$. Fiscal years run October to September: FY1 is Oct 2026 to Sep 2027. Base case uses conservative deal volumes weighted by probability.
Download the financial model (.xlsx)One raise covers the launch. Gross profit funds the rest. No further raise is modeled.
The $2M raise lands in month 1. Cash bottoms at $1.5M in month 4 and EBITDA turns positive in month 5. From there, gross profit funds growth. No further capital is required to reach $267.2M in FY4 revenue and $87.2M in FY4 EBITDA.
Monthly revenue, EBITDA, and cash from launch through the end of FY1.
The raise lands in month 1. Cash bottoms at $1.5M in month 4 and EBITDA turns positive in month 5.
Revenue build by channel, gross profit, operating expenses, and EBITDA across four fiscal years.
| Metric | FY1 | FY2 | FY3 | FY4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-to-consumer | $15.0M | $69.6M | $129.7M | $184.9M |
| A.E. Perkins employer program | $6.2M | $20.2M | $25.5M | $29.4M |
| Care Covered | $5.6M | $17.2M | $24.3M | $29.5M |
| Clinic network | $2.1M | $5.8M | $6.3M | $6.8M |
| Pure Fusion | $1.3M | $2.8M | $3.7M | $4.0M |
| Supplements | $2.8M | $7.9M | $10.8M | $12.5M |
| Total revenue | $33.0M | $123.5M | $200.3M | $267.2M |
| Gross profit | $11.7M | $48.9M | $82.4M | $111.7M |
| Gross margin | 35% | 40% | 41% | 42% |
| Operating expenses | $6.2M | $14.3M | $21.3M | $24.5M |
| EBITDA | $5.5M | $34.6M | $61.1M | $87.2M |
| EBITDA margin | 17% | 28% | 30% | 33% |
| Net income | $4.1M | $25.9M | $45.8M | $65.4M |
Free cash flow, closing cash, and total equity at each fiscal year end.
| Metric | FY1 | FY2 | FY3 | FY4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | $4.8M | $27.8M | $47.9M | $67.3M |
| Closing cash | $6.8M | $34.6M | $82.5M | $149.8M |
| Total equity | $6.1M | $32.0M | $77.8M | $143.2M |
Members, tests, supplement units, headcount, and channel mix.
| Metric | FY1 | FY2 | FY3 | FY4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active members at year end | 17,100 | 36,300 | 52,900 | 66,900 |
| of which employer | 4,800 | 7,500 | 9,000 | 10,200 |
| One-off blood tests | 4,800 | 6,600 | 6,600 | 6,600 |
| Supplement units | 95K | 272K | 375K | 436K |
| Named headcount | 22 | 28 | 30 | 30 |
| Share of revenue from partner and employer channels | 46% | 37% | 30% | 26% |
Downside, base, and pipeline scenarios. The base case uses conservative deal volumes weighted by probability.
| Scenario | FY1 rev | FY2 rev | FY3 rev | FY4 rev | FY4 EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Downside CAC $300, fewer protocols, churn up a point every year, suppliers paid up front | $25.8M | $91.5M | $150.1M | $202.6M | $62.6M |
Base | $33.0M | $123.5M | $200.3M | $267.2M | $87.2M |
Pipeline Signed and in-progress deals at upside volumes, weighted by probability | $118.1M | $447.4M | $666.2M | $761.7M | $232.4M |
The Pipeline view includes the AEP employer program reaching 100,000 members and a 6 million life state health platform at 30% probability. Neither is in the Base case.
Per-member revenue, contribution, acquisition cost, lifetime value, and churn.
2.75x FY4 revenue base case, less a 25% private-company discount, plus net cash. 13x FY4 EBITDA as a cross-check.
Comparables: Hims & Hers 3.0x, Quest 2.8x, Labcorp 2.3x, GoodRx 1.8x, Doximity 6.2x. Range on revenue: 1.5x low to 4.5x high.
How the base case holds up under adverse conditions.
FY1 EBITDA still $2.7M, lowest cash $1.1M.
FY3 EBITDA stays between $43M and $77M across 1.4 to 2.2 protocols per member and churn one point better to two points worse.
See the full opportunity.
Return to the investor briefing for the market thesis, clinical foundation, go-to-market, and team.
These projections are forward-looking estimates based on assumptions set out in the financial model. They are not guarantees of future results. Actual results may differ materially. This page is confidential and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.